Perhaps Lost in the Polling: The Race Is Still Close

President Biden will be counting on Pennsylvania. He grew up in Scranton.Credit…Ted Shaffrey/Associated Press

There’s no way around it: The news for President Biden hasn’t been great.

He has trailed in national and battleground state polls for months. His approval ratings are among the lowest on record for a first-term president. He’s struggling among young, Black and Hispanic voters. And all of this against an opponent who faces several criminal trials, including one that could have a verdict this week.

But the news is not all bad for Mr. Biden — or, at least, it’s not all that bad. The race is still pretty close. It’s close enough that he would have a very serious chance to win if the election were held tomorrow. And of course, the race won’t be held tomorrow: There are five-plus months to go for a possible Biden comeback.

Together, there’s a case for taking a glass-almost-half-full perspective on Mr. Biden’s chances. Right or wrong, it’s a case that maybe hasn’t gotten quite as much attention as it deserves.

The electoral map

How is the race close? Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

If Mr. Biden won those battleground states, he’d probably bere-elected as president. They would combine to give him exactly 270 electoral college votes provided he held everywhere he won by six percentage points or more in 2020. That means he could lose all of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and so on, and still win.

Yes, Donald J. Trump does lead most polls of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But the race is close in all three states.

In our recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls, Mr. Trump led by an average of one percentage point across the three states among likely voters. The 538 and RealClearPolitics polling averages both show Mr. Trump ahead by just one point across those states, and Mr. Trump doesn’t appear to lead by more than around two points in any of them.